May 2025 KWP Newsletter
“Navigating the Noise: Signals of Strength Emerge”
In today’s fast-moving news cycle, market sentiment can swing dramatically from one headline to the next. It’s easy to get caught up in the daily noise, reacting to each new development as if it defines the entire outlook. But stepping back offers a much-needed sense of perspective. As we assess April and May, the message is clear: beneath the surface-level noise, markets continue to show resilience and adaptability.
April: Tariffs Return, Volatility Responds
April brought a resurgence of trade-related headlines as tariff measures were revised across key global economies. While these developments injected fresh uncertainty into markets—particularly affecting multinational sectors—investors took the turbulence in stride. Equity markets experienced periodic pullbacks, especially in industries with complex supply chains such as technology and manufacturing. Yet the underlying tone was more reflective than reactionary.
Crucially, corporate earnings offered a stabilizing force. Many companies delivered better-than-expected results, underscoring strong domestic demand and operational flexibility. Bond markets echoed this sentiment, with yields remaining relatively stable despite geopolitical headlines. Volatility increased—but so did investor discernment.
May: Winds Shift Toward Recovery
By early May, markets began to shift from defense to recalibration. Although tariff concerns remained part of the narrative, the focus turned to fundamentals. A temporary reduction in proposed duties and renewed bilateral talks fueled optimism. On May 9, major U.S. indices posted their best single-day gains of the year: the Dow added over 1,000 points, and the Nasdaq rallied nearly 5%.
Tech led the rebound, with large-cap names and semiconductor stocks reversing steep April losses. Retail stocks followed, buoyed by optimism about supply chain normalization ahead of the summer shopping season. Energy remained volatile, however, as crude oil dipped below $73/barrel, reflecting mixed expectations around global demand.
Looking Ahead: Clarity Through Complexity
April’s volatility tested resolve, but May's recovery demonstrated that markets are learning to adapt to a more complex global backdrop. As always, we remain focused on risk management, long-term opportunity, and staying grounded in data over drama. Thank you for your continued trust. We’ll be monitoring developments closely and are here to help you navigate whatever comes next—with perspective, purpose, and discipline.
*https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/us-trade-negotiator-says-10-universal-tariff-will-rebuild-domestic-manufacturing-2025-05-13/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
*https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/brent-crude-oil-prices-projected-to-average-73-per-barrel-in-2025-wood-mackenzie/119188911?utm_source=chatgpt.com
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